![]() But if you carefully reread the section above titled “The Gist of Seasonal Trends” then you may come to understand that that is exactly my point. So most people will shy away from anything even remotely resembling what I have just described. Still, a roughly 30% a year average annual return typically does involve some risk. So this is not a “hey let’s bet the ranch” type of idea. This strategy has serious risk and volatility involved. So is everyone going to now resolve to trade real estate stocks on certain days of each and every single month going forward? Surely not. REPIX non-seasonally favorable days: -92%įor the record, the difference in the relative rates of return listed above are what we “quantitative analyst types” refer to as “statistically significant.” So let’s sum up the results from August 2000: $1,000 invested in REPIX only on all non-favorable seasonal days actually declined in value to just $82 (-92%). Growth of $1,000 invested in REPIX only on “non favorable” days (Aug 2000-present) Rydex Real Estate On Seasonally Favorable Days Once again, this is obviously not everyone’s “cup of tea.” Still, the results are fairly compelling.īelow displays the growth of $1,000 invested in ticker REPIX only during the days listed above starting on the Aug(when REPIX started trading). Obviously this particular strategy is only for traders who are “hands on” and willing to hold positions for either 1 day (in the case of trading days 8, 12 and 15) or 6 days (the four end of month days plus the two start of the next month days). The Strategy – We will hold ticker REPIX on the following trading days each month: ![]() For those who want less risk - and are willing to settle for less return - there is the Rydex real estate mutual fund (ticker RYRIX) and many real estate ETFs - with ticker IYR being the most heavily traded. For the record, this fund uses leverage of 1.5-to-1. If you are looking for an edge in the markets does it make sense to look:įor the following illustration of using seasonal trends we will use ticker REPIX, which is the Profunds Real Estate mutual fund. I would guess that no more than 10% of traders and investors look at seasonal trends. And that’s OK because if we reach the point where we all trade and invest the same then there won’t be anybody left to take the other side of our trades.įor the record, the underlying reason that I look at seasonal trends is to attempt to find an “edge.” I would guess that 90% of traders and investors look at fundamental and/or technical analysis. Personally I choose a), but you may choose b). And I also understand that this is also not everyone’s “cup of tea.” Depending on one’s point of view seasonal trends can either be considered to beĪ) Interesting and potentially useful, OR I am referring more to what goes on “under the hood.”Īs you may know if you (WARNING: Shameless Self-Serving Plug to follow) read my book “ Seasonal Stock Market Trends”, I have a “thing” for seasonality in the financial markets. But the most recent rally is not what I am talking about.
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